Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMatt18
This actually made me curious of the impact McDavid has had on Draisaitl / RNH / Hyman's production the last couple seasons at 5v5.
The PP is tough to break apart who is the driver, and really they have no reason to break up the RNH/Hyman/Draisaitl/McDavid/Bouchard PP any time soon.
But at 5v5 it's a bit easier.
RNH:
21-22: 6.6%, 3.32 GF/60 with, 2.74 GF/60 without
22-23: 29.0%, 3.79 GF/60 with, 3.32 GF/60 without
23-24: 49%, 4.06 GF/60 with, 2.51 GF/60 without
Hyman:
21-22 44%, 2.91 GF/60 with, 2.29 GF/60 without
22-23: 64%, 4.49 GF/60 with, 2.85 GF/60 without
23-24: 75%, 4.96 GF/60 with, 2.67 GF/60 without
Draisaitl:
21-22: 22.8% 3.49 GF/60 with, 3.02 GF/60 w/o
22-23: 36.6% 4.09 GF/60 with, 3.15 GF/60 w/o
23-24: 58.9% 4.89 GF/60 with, 2.89 GF/60 w/o
These are McDavid's 3 most common linemates over the past 3 seasons at 5v5. With McDavid they all average 4.00 GF/60, without McDavid they average 2.83 GF/60. A lift of 1.17 GF/60 or 42%.
For McDavid's linemates they generally get a point on 64% of the goals that are scored when they are on the ice.
So if you are getting 1.17 GF/60 more with McDavid then if you were to play 100% of mintues with him (1200 minutes), then you'd be getting about 15 more even strength minutes per season with him. If you play half of the time with him it would be 7 ES points.
Which maybe at first glance doesn't seem like a ton, but the league leaders generally have around 70 ES points, so an extra 7-15 is actually pretty substantial.
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Just looking at Draisaitl, his numbers average 4.16 GF/60 with McDavid, and 3.02 GF/60 without. This begs the question, what does he look like, on another team?
Of course, we can't simply take the 'without' numbers and say that is what he would be, but for argument's sake, let's do it anyway!
He has played 4132.25 EV minutes in the last 3 years. He has been on the ice for 276 EV goals over that time. If we apply the 'without' averages, he would have been on the ice for 208 goals for. That is 23 fewer points per year.
As I said, not really a fair comparison, but the point remains - he probably isn't a $14M player on his own.