Quote:
Originally Posted by PepsiFree
Yeah, it’s not any kind of discount, but they paid market price for a top player who will likely continue to be a top player for the next 5 years and first 4 years of the deal, along with McDavid who likely has another 5-7 years of top performance left in him.
Personally, I think the debate around giving him max term is pointless. They had to. They were never getting close to the value they’d be giving up over the next 5 years through a trade, and certainly not by just letting him walk. Generally I agree with the sentiment that the last few years don’t really matter (because yes, the cap will go up, and by year 6 they’re likely looking at a rebuild anyway so his contract does not matter). Where this kind of uniquely screws the Oilers is actually in the first few years where the cap isn’t going up fast enough and McDavid is looking at a huge increase as well. This would be OK if they were in a good position, but they’re starting from an absolutely dismal cap situation as it stands today, which is only going to get worse next year and significantly worse the year after.
If the Flames had signed Gaudreau and Tkachuk to big money, max term deals they would have been fine because they had a solid team around them, something resembling a pipeline, and cap flexibility with the way certain contracts were set to expire. The Oilers basically only have this year before their depth becomes even more depleted to manage the further step into cap hell they’re taking.
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It's too bold to suggest that Drysaddle and McDavid are going to produce like they are for the next 5-7 years. There are way more miles on those frames than if they were playing for a sane, rational organization. Look at some of the greats across the league - Lemieux, Gretzky, Crosby, Malkin all had their final seasons of pure offensive dominance ~32 years old and these guys weren't ridden into the ground nearly as much.
I'm not saying these players didn't continue to produce after that point, but they had injury issues limiting their production, and just clearly starting losing a step leading to reduced production from the freakish levels earlier in their careers.
The Oilers are going to be in big trouble in 3 years when the regression inevitably hits and they have nothing else to fall back on or any cap room to pivot. Even 75-90 point production from two forwards taking in a combined ~30M AAV will be absolutely crippling to a team with essentially no pipeline and too many replacement level players.