Quote:
Originally Posted by zukes
I was thinking of doing the same, but since it was so obvious last year, I feel the books will correct. Maybe not though, since as GirlySports points out the public loves the over. I haven't looked at the lines yet. Trying to figure out college this weekend first.
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The totals I've seen are very comparable to what was out last season in week 1.
Last year average closing total was 44.1 with the lowest at 38 and highest at 52.5 and one other game over 50. The games averaged just a touch over 41 points. Based on what's out right now I'm seeing average line at 44.7 points with the lowest being 40.5 and only the Rams and Lions set over 50 and only one game below 41.5.
This all likely means nothing since matchups are different, it's a new season. But I'll see how I do. Books are not trying to predict results, they're managing risk. So my thinking is they can inflate week one lines knowing they'll still get enough action on overs. The books want a 50-50 handle on every game and to take the juice.