Quote:
Originally Posted by YyjFlames
The 8th year at that age typically brings the average up a bit (I also don't see a Canadian team tax for RFA players coming off their entry deal. They don't have much leverage so the team is just negotiating buying some of their UFA years)... I also don't think there are any recent contracts that would say 7X7 is the new norm for a 40-50 point player coming off his entry level deal. Probably best recent comparables for a 50-70 point young player who got a 7X7 (or close to it) on his second contract are:
Top 10 draft pick Dylan Cozens after a 30 goal, nearly 70 point season got a 7X7.
Matt Boldy after a 31 goal, 63 point season got a $7.1X7
Quinn Byfield just signed a $6.2X5 after a 20 goal, 55 point season.
And Tippet.
If Byfield is only getting a $6.25X5 after a 55 point season, Zary isn't getting a 7X7 unless he puts up 70 points... and even if he does that, they'd still negotiate to get him under Byfield's number as Byfield's potential is massive.
Lundell is an interesting comparable too. Guy just signed a $5mX6 after a big playoff showing, great pedigree, and a 50-point pace season a couple years ago. That's roughly where I'd like to see Zary if he repeats or does a little better than last year... maybe a little more for an extra year, but I don't think you pay guys drafted in the 20s more than that at this age. There's no precedent, and the Flames aren't going to set it for a non top 5-10 drafted player.
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Love Zary, but Byfield, Boldy, and Cozens are all on a higher level (for now anyways). Those three are expected to be first line players and potentially the core of an offence going forward. Zary is projecting more as a tenacious 2nd line player.