[#-3]

Originally Posted by MRCboicgy

Good time for a reminder that 538's model isn't the same one used in previous years, as Nate Silver retained the IP after he left Disney.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-i-d...s-new-election

Fair enough, I think the real thing they all stress here is until you get beyond the 80-20 range in any model both scenarios are somewhat likely to happen, while people often look at these models a right or wrong. And the polling race being a 50-50 tie doesn't mean that the EC will be close, since the the 7 key battle ground states will probably go 5-2 or 6-1, one way or the other.

The way I look at this race is you could pretty much take either parties odds of winning each of those 7 states, apply it to this formula and you have the overall odds.

(Penn x Mich x NC) + (Penn x Mich x Georg) + (Penn x NC x Georg) + (Mich x NC x Georg)
+
Odds remaining after you apply the above to both parties x Ari x Wiss
+
odds remaining x Nev.

So it all boils down to how you rate their odds of winning those 7 states.