[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by MRCboicgy

Good time for a reminder that 538's model isn't the same one used in previous years, as Nate Silver retained the IP after he left Disney.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-i-d...s-new-election

I don't think it is possible to model this election as there is no precedent for so many significant factors?

How do you even factor in incumbency? Harris is the incumbent VP, Trump is a former president. Kamala had no primary. Trump basically had no competitive primary and got in like a sitting president would. The economy is pretty good by most indicators, but viewed as lousy by the public mostly because of inflation.

I think national and state polls are all we can go by this time around, as there is just no way to have any confidence in any model methodology.