Quote:
Originally Posted by GirlySports
I think polling is in for a big surprise. 18-25s don't answer polls.
I was skeptical like you but I think the DNC was really good and Trump was losing his ####.
I also think Georgia is lost. What is Trump doing going after Brian Kemp?
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Predicting who’s not answering polls is a fools errand. Broad statements like 18-25 years don’t answer polls are meaningless when polls are demographics adjusted to reflect the projected electorate. Most polling is not raw data. It’s polled, then weighted to reflect demographics so you don’t over-represent groups who answer the phones. This weighting can be either based on the demographics of a country or state or based on the demographics of likely voters from the country or state. This demographic adjustment is where you see the bias that the different polling companies have
We don’t know how representative the person who chooses to answer a poll is relative to the voters of that demographic. This creates the non-statistical error in the polling that is of unknown direction and magnitude each election.