Quote:
Originally Posted by rubecube
Take a look at the graph on RCP for PN. She just continues to trend upwards. Even Rasmussen, a notoriously R-leaning pollster, only has Trump +1. I believe he was +5 with them a week ago.
I've also been reading that they've had a huge surge of volunteer registrations in Florida over the last few weeks, so that could be back in play at some point as well.
Like I said a couple of days ago; I don't want to get my hopes up, but I think the final map will be closer to 2012 than 2016 or 2020.
EDIT: Trump won Maine's second district by about 8 points in 2020 and is currently trailing Harris there by 5.
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There are two major ballot amendments that will drive democrats out in droves: one is on recreational marijuana (currently only for medical access with a card), the other is on abortion access until fetal viability, which would significantly add time for abortion access to the current 6 week ban.
That, coupled with the actual polling data here shifting significantly towards democrats in recent weeks (for example, Rick Scott's senate seat...he went from a double digit lead in the polls, sometimes as high as 15 points, down to a 4 point lead in recent weeks), makes me think that Florida is actually in play. I won't be surprised if it still goes red, but it will be closer than a lot of people realize.