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Originally Posted by Enoch Root
Great post, Butterfly - thanks!
One qualitative comment I would make is that McDavid and Draisaitl are very focused on points (they, and the Oilers, appear to believe that more points equals more success (slow learners, I know)), so while the other guys that you considered turned their attention to winning and what is required to do so (and thus accepting lower point totals), these two have, and likely will continue, to rack up the points, a little further into their careers. Especially if they remain in Edmonton.
This does not refute anything you said (nor is it trying to), your point is very valid. I'm just saying that I wouldn't be surprised if their declines are a little later and slower, simply due to their focus on points. That doesn't change the expected implications at all though.
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Thanks friend! As you pointed out, we have already seen that extension of a later peak, too. Some of that could be due to the composite group who were superstars in the 80s and 90s, and it's possible that modern training techniques are responsible for the delayed peak. But my feeling is some of it is also due to what you said about them being focused on scoring.
Every line that's on that chart is something that's already happened - it's the blank space in the future that the Oilers are bidding on, and knowing what happens to players I want them to break the bank for them. They haven't won with them at peak performance making about 26% of cap. I'd love to see them pay 33% of cap for their decline years just because their fans don't want them leaving.
I know their fans think McDavid and Draisaitl belong in a club like this... we will see. As getbak mentioned, most of the Stanley Cups these people won had already happened by this point in their careers.