Great post, Butterfly - thanks!
One qualitative comment I would make is that McDavid and Draisaitl are very focused on points (they, and the Oilers, appear to believe that more points equals more success (slow learners, I know)), so while the other guys that you considered turned their attention to winning and what is required to do so (and thus accepting lower point totals), these two have, and likely will continue, to rack up the points, a little further into their careers. Especially if they remain in Edmonton.
This does not refute anything you said (nor is it trying to), your point is very valid. I'm just saying that I wouldn't be surprised if their declines are a little later and slower, simply due to their focus on points. That doesn't change the expected implications at all though.
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