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Old 08-16-2024, 04:23 PM   #19251
opendoor
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dino7c View Post
Dems will outperform the polls like they have since 2018 IMO
I don't think there's a lot of evidence of that. Here's the recent trend:

2018 generic Congressional (+8.6% for Democrats):

538: +8.7%
RCP: +7.3%

2020 Presidential (+4.5% for Biden)

538: +8.4%
RCP: +7.4%

2020 generic Congressional (+3.1% for Democrats)

538: +7.3%
RCP: +6.8%

2022 generic Congressional (-2.7% for Democrats)

538: -1.2%
RCP: -2.8%


So on average, those aggregates overestimated Democratic support by about 1.9 points.
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