Quote:
Originally Posted by dino7c
Dems will outperform the polls like they have since 2018 IMO
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I don't think there's a lot of evidence of that. Here's the recent trend:
2018 generic Congressional (+8.6% for Democrats):
538: +8.7%
RCP: +7.3%
2020 Presidential (+4.5% for Biden)
538: +8.4%
RCP: +7.4%
2020 generic Congressional (+3.1% for Democrats)
538: +7.3%
RCP: +6.8%
2022 generic Congressional (-2.7% for Democrats)
538: -1.2%
RCP: -2.8%
So on average, those aggregates overestimated Democratic support by about 1.9 points.