Quote:
Originally Posted by 1qqaaz
I think that in the past, yes, size correlated to long term durability.
But in the modern NHL, the correlation would seem to be quite a bit weaker. Shifty guys like Gaudreau, Keller, Hughes, DeBrincat, Zuccarello, Marchessault, are pretty durable.
Fleury was such a unicorn at the time. Unless most of the aforementioned players, he actually had some edge.
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I think any kind of test of longevity in production as a top player would need to be restricted to those types of players and what kind of % drop in points per minute has been observed from their late 20s into their early 30s and into their late 30s. Only include players that have put up at least four seasons of at least a point per game after the age of 26. Don’t want to include 3rd/4th liners because they could have the same production year after year at any age when they only score 10-15 points per season. Then calculate the % drop in points per minute production from each era of their age (late 20s, early 30s and late 30s). Then see if there is any correlation between height and the % drop in production.
Note: the change in points per minute would be a better gauge than the change in points per game because a player’s ppg may drop simply because they are given less minutes per game in general as they get older.