Quote:
Originally Posted by blankall
If you're banking on getting a generational talent to win a cup, then even with 10 years of tanking, the odds are firmly against you. The odds of getting a #1 overall are only 25.5%, even if you finish very last, which is unlikely, so your likely looking at 13.5-8.5% odds at #1. Then, that generational or even franchise level player doesn't come along every year.
You could tank for 10 years straight, end up with a single #1 overall pick, then draft Lafreniere, Slafkovsky, or Hischier instead of Matthews, McDavid, or MacKinnon.
At a certain point you do have to build a good team. If you get lucky enough to have those 3-4 core pieces to build around, the rest is built outside of the draft. From your examples, Tampa didn't have that prolonged rebuild, people are talking about. Colorado did their best not to have a prolonged rebuild.
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Mcdavid, Crosby, Lemeuix, Gretzky, Orr, Bedard IMO are generational.
MacKinnon is every bit as good as McDavid but wasn't projected as generational. Barkov has a cup, Eichel has a cup, Tkachuk has a cup, Kucherov was on my list too as a guy that gets it done every year in the playoffs. We don't need Mcdavid to have elite players.
The way some of our depth guys played over the years in the playoffs, if we had a true elite 1st line we could have won. Backlund's line most years is very good in the playoffs, young Sam Bennett was as well. Gaudreau was not. He's not elite, just very good all-star caliber, just not in with the guys I mentioned and can't be the go-to guy on a cup winning team.