Quote:
Originally Posted by PsYcNeT
Yeah I'm not talking about 538's aggregation. He's not a pollster, he's an analyst that is often shooting his mouth off scattergun-style on Twitter and is frequently wrong but always posturing himself as the smartest guy in the room.
You can celebrate the handful of times he's swung for the fences and got it right, but you can't ignore the far larger mountain of bull#### he spews that is so absolutely wrong it's comical.
Statistically, he's better than a broken clock but not by a huge margin.
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My experience is listening to him on the 538 podcast, reading 538 articles when he used to write and maintained the election forecast, and reading his book.
Can you really understand what he does from the odd Twitter post?
I agree he's not a pollster, but he's also not an analyst as you claim.
He's a statistician. He's not making predictions, he's sharing the statistical outcomes based on crunching others peoples numbers.
I don't see how you can be upset with what he says. He's dealing with a ton of uncertainty and bringing together a ton of disparate data.
To me it's like being upset with Excel because you don't like the financial model you created.