[Itse]

Perun with a look into the Russian equipment losses, and the outlook gives reasons for cautious optimism.

There are very clear signs that the Russian weapons stockpiles are depleting at a pace that is going to be felt at the frontlines. They are digging into older and older equipment, and the equipment they are trying to send to the front need more and more repair. The production of new materiel doesn't come even close to keeping up with their losses.

Even though Perun doesn't say it, it's also pretty safe to call the Russian Kharkiv offensive a clear strategic failure. In general, the loss of Russian men and equipment are massive compared to the tiny amounts of land gained.

North Korean stockpiles might bring short term relief, but the equipment Russia is getting from there is also likely to be old and crappy, and it's unclear how much NK is willing to part with.

It's worth remembering that regardless of who wins the US presidential race, the already approved weapons packages will still keep arriving in 2025, as much of the support is more or less "already in the system" so to speak. Trump might cut off new support, but he's very unlikely to block US military manufacturers from completing deals already made. The European powers have also been making an increasing amount of long term commitments.

There is I think a real chance (not a great chance, but still a real one) that this summer was the highpoint of Russian advantage in materiel, and that next year the playing field will be much more even for Ukrainians... Who have shown that when the odds are even close to even, they can consistently pull off W's on the battlefield.

More importantly, I think after this summer, any talk that "Russia can't be defeated" and "Ukraine's defeat is inevitable" will just look obviously false, while the idea that Russia can win this war on the battlefield will be just as obviously false. If they could, this year was the time to do it.

That could do a lot for the support of the war, both in the US and inside Russia.

Russia is very far from being beat, it still has a very big and dangerous army, but I still look at the situation with cautious optimism. Even if Trump wins and cuts off all support for Ukraine, I think Russia's window to win this on the battlefield is basically already closed (for now).