Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMatt18
Thing is he doesn't really blow. His production decline this past season was largely on-ice shooting percentage driven.
21-22: 16.4%
22-23: 12.2%
23-24: 9.01%
Let's look at his 5v5 stats for his 3 years in Carolina:
59.5% Corsi For
56.7% xGF
54.1% GF
7.7% Shooting Percentage
.913 Save Percentage
0.990 PDO
1.75 Points Per 60 (7th)
0.77 Goals Per 60 (5th)
0.98 Assists Per 60 (11th)
12.1% Shooting Percentage
That's better than Bennett was his last three years in Calgary, and he was also 24 the season he was traded:
51.9% Corsi For
51.9% XGF
44.4% GF
7.2% on-ice shooting
.909 Save Percentage
.981 PDO
1.43 Points Per 60
0.68 Goals Per 60
0.75 Assists Per 60
9.1% Shooting Percentage
Similar to Bennett in that poor on-ice shooting and save percentage seemed to be limiting his overall production to that point. The one big difference is that Kotkaniemi's own shooting percentage is quite good, even though his on-ice still remains low, meaning it might be more an issue with his teammates finishing.
He's only 24 and locked up for $4.8M x 4 years...honestly I have no issue with that contract at all for where this team is the next 4 years and even if he doesn't improve and he tops out as a 40 point guy it's fine.
People seem so willing to give up a 2nd and $4M AAV to offersheet somebody like Dylan Holloway...who is less proven and only a year younger and doesn't even play center.
When the Hurricanes were rumoured to be heavily shopping him before the draft and free agency they should have been all over it.
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The Bennett comps only go so far. If he were signed to an additional 6 years at 4.8, he would have been untradable. Plus he brought it in the playoffs whereas kotkaniemi shrinks.
Bennett was intriguing as hell as a deadline guy on an expiring deal and therefore had value. KK would be overpaid even if we ignore his last year, which you might consider a down year until you start looking for his good years, and they don't exist.
At 6 years, it is a risk. Our 2026 picks may be on their second contracts by then. You just can't give that space up for nothing if you're Conroy. Carolina felt they needed to overpay him which was a compounding mistake. He's like their own micro version of Huberdeau. Why would we ever simply let them off the hook?