Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
I think defensive defensemen creep under the radar for a lot of hockey fans (not saying you specifically).
great value in a guy that can play a 4-5 roll on your team and be a shut down and I think that's where he's heading.
Hoping he achieves Tanev status (arguably 2-3 defenseman), but 4-5 is a great trade result for the Flames.
|
For me its an upside/likelihood thing with Grush, who was my pick. His game likely does not have top pairing upside but he's reasonably likely to be a good #4-5.
It's really hard to compare high upside, low probability with low upside, high probability. I think of it as a math equation and you multiply both percentages together and use the bigger number. Someone like Brust has #2-3D upside, but a pretty low likelihood of panning out because that game is so hard to translate to the NHL level. If his offensive game doesn't translate he's not likely to be a serviceable bottom pairing D - he's really a kind of boom or bust. So call it maybe 70% upside with a 20% probability, which is a 14% "rating". Grush is maybe 35% upside (bottom 3 D) but an 80% likelihood, which is a 28% "rating", so he would get my vote between those two.