Quote:
Originally Posted by SeeGeeWhy
Generously assuming no degradation on the panels for 20 years at that production rate, that's a lifetime production of 282,060kWh at a unit price of 16.5 cents/kWh. Over 3x what I was paying on an energy basis at the time, and still a good 50% higher than today's bum touching offer.
Again, what am I getting wrong about my math? Why is everyone saying this crap is cheap? It is NOT CHEAP.
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It looks like they were factoring in some form of net new appliance into your quote. Were you considering a heat pump/electric vehicle/hot tub or any other new appliance at the time you got the quote? Only other thing I could think of is that you are looking at a 12 month period now that has way less consumption compared to what you were using in 2022 but that seems less likely unless you got out of the growop or bitcoin mining business…
You are right that you’d have never had that approved unless any of the above is correct.
On your previous post, areas of your math I’d want to examine closer start with the system price you are quoted. Zeno has a door knocking division, did they come to you through that avenue? For example base price I’d quote you for a 14.99kW system would be around $32.6k so I think your quote is high for what you are getting. Even an electrical panel upgrade would only bring that up another $3k.
I’d also look at at least 25 years rather than 20, since the panel warranty these days is 25 years at minimum (newer ones are at 30). I know you’re not building in degradation, but tier 1 panels should still be at 85% at 25 years or they would have been replaced under warranty. Panels should have a lifespan of 35-40 years but using the warranty period is a conservative approach.
Even at your math of comparing a high priced system and getting that 16.5 cents per kWh, you are only comparing that against your fixed rate, so you aren’t factoring in the big portion of your bill that is made the delivery and admin fees. Even at your really low 6 cent fixed rate, I’d bet your levelized cost of electricity (what you are actually paying per kWh) is already around $0.16 to $0.20 per kWh. If your rate was to renew at current rates you’re LCOE is probably closer to $0.20-0.25 per kWH. Yes, distribution and transmission will still exist, but at much lower levels, especially if you can change your habits to skew your electricity use to daytime production hours for any high volume appliance. Even if you were paying that high 16.5 cent cost for your production with your solar investment, you’re not considering the full lifetime of return, and you’re also not factoring in the inflation of electricity rates further through the years. The AUC is forecasting 3.5% annual inflation on electricity rates over the next 25 years. To me, doing a bit of napkin math without the napkin, I think your high priced quote, even with being on a low fixed rate that hasn’t jumped yet, and only looking at things over 20 years, still looks to me like you’re locking in your current rates now with Solar protecting against inevitable increases.