Quote:
Originally Posted by Rutuu
How does everyone see the following states voting?
California
Oregon
Washington
Colorado - Bush won in 2004 & 2000
Minnesota
Wisconsin - Trump won 2016 (lost in 2020)
Illinois
Michigan - Trump won 2016 (lost in 2020)
New York
Vermont
New Hampshire
Maine
Virginia - Bush won in 2004 & 2000
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New Jersey
Delaware
Maryland
DC
New Mexico - Bush won in 2004 & 2000
Pennsylvania - Trump won 2016 (lost in 2020)
If you picked one Red team Biden loses...
To me the map skews quite Blue. In 2020 Biden won Az, Ga, and NV which turned the night into a complete blow out. The Red team has a decent mountain to climb to win this time convincing voters in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico do not feel in play.
|
The interesting thing with how correlated public opinion is is that the question really is what is the most red state a person can win. In general they get everything less red than that state.
Now there might be 2 or 3 coin flip states that are the same redness and there might be a change from midterms.
But it comes down to Pennsylvania which is Trump +2.4 per 270towin. So can Biden gain 1.2% support nationally after recovering from the debate. (These polls don’t factor in the debate performance)