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Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame
I think some of that might be having to build trust with Nenshi, and disrupting some of the core, classic NDP votes. Their traditional union base is located there. However, time will tell if they will come back. That doesn't mean they polled in favor of the UCP.
I think if Gil McGowan won it might have bumped up those Edmonton numbers, but that doesn't mean it would have had a positive effect in Calgary.
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I think the bigger part is that most of the province doesn't know what to make of Nenshi. Outside Calgary, he's just a name. The same issue smacked the Alberta Party when they tried to haul Stephen Mandel out.
The values in Calgary seem reasonable as the polled community would know who he is and what he would stand for. After winning the popular vote 49-48% there in 2023, it seems reasonable for a slight UCP lead after the announcement of a surplus.
I would suspect a Nenshi that starts explaining his platform and making inroads as a provincial politician will get better results.