[Dion]

Post-debate bumps are real, but no guarantee

The biggest post-debate polling bump in the last four presidential cycles helped Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee in 2012, make up an average of 4.6 percentage points in national polls.

But Romney's lead over then-President Obama didn't last.

Why it matters: A good (or bad) first debate can show up in the polls a week after the debate, according to the Real Clear Politics average of national polls.

It doesn't seal the fate of either candidate, however.

Obama recovered from an uninspired debate effort in 2012 and built a healthy lead in the national polls, which translated into a victory on Election Day.

In 2020, Joe Biden increased his lead over then-President Trump after their first messy meeting with a net gain of nearly 3 points, after coming into the debate with a 6-point advantage.

https://www.axios.com/2024/06/27/pos...t-no-guarantee