Quote:
Originally Posted by Slava
Sure, there is a future there, you just have to ride out a "Kim Campbell" election in the meantime. That's soul crushing and that is the kind of thing that can become existential for the party faster than people think. You get smashed in the next election, the NDP moves slightly centrist and eats your lunch, and then you have a polarization that happens pretty quickly.
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I don't know if the current situation is really comparable to 1993, for reasons that are both good and bad for the Liberals. The PCs lost a lot of votes to an upstart party that doesn't have a current equivalent. So they got 16% of the vote, but only 2 seats which wiped them out and the Reform party effectively replaced them. I don't think there's much reason to think that the NDP could permanently supplant the Liberals, so I'd expect any time in the wilderness to be more akin to the post-Chretien/Martin period than permanent relegation.
Also, I think people understate how poor the PC's campaign was in 1993. Once Mulroney announced he was stepping down, the PC's polling numbers immediately went up from 15-20% in late 1992/early 1993 to 35-45% in the spring of 1993, giving them the lead in about half the polls in that period. Then they consistently polled at ~35% through the summer and once the election was called, they actually led until about a month before the election. Eventually their support cratered, but there was a 6-7 month period after Mulroney stepped down where they went from consistently polling in 3rd or 4th place (often in the 12-14% range) in 1991-1992 to contending for the lead. I don't think the same thing would happen this time, but I also wouldn't underestimate a potential bump if Trudeau is gone.
On the other hand, the PCs were primarily hurt by economic woes and policy. The unemployment rate was 11-12% when Mulroney stepped down, the effects of the early '90s recession were still strong, and the GST was unpopular. But new leadership for the party in power could be seen as something that could change the course. Whereas with Trudeau and the current Liberals, people dislike them for a lot of reasons, and I think it'll be harder to sell a message of change due to a new leader than it was in 1993.