Quote:
Originally Posted by GioforPM
True. I don't know why but it always feels to me like the mid first round is a forward. And high first round is a forward unless it's a can't miss guy like Makar/Hughes/Heiskenan/Hedman.
I also think the Flames are going to have multiple picks in several years.
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I completely agree, but don't like saying "I feel". So I did a quest test exporting Hockeydb to a spreadsheet; From 2009-2023, checking for players who have averaged 41+ games / year since their draft. (as a simple measure of who made it full time quickly and for a long time).
1st Round F 44%
1st Round D 33%
2-7 Round F 5.1%
2-7 Round D 4.1%
So your chances of pulling a long term D do go up slightly relative to F in later rounds, D overall are about 30% less likely to have a long NHL career coming out of the draft making them riskier picks in the top 10, riskier picks in the top 32 and riskier picks in the later rounds. That level of relative risk just goes down compare to forwards later in the draft.
as a quick aside 65 D men, and 104 forwards met my criteria from the 15 year span. So we are talking about the top 5% of draft pick from all of the drafts, and the top 20% of players who will be in the NHL this year.
*I didn't consider retirements, or make any adjustments for the shorts seasons... So it naturally weighted my measurement a little heavier on the 2015-2012 drafts where there are more guys who have hand the chance to smooth out those lost games in the averages, and fewer guys who have cut their careers shorts, shrinking their averages.