Originally Posted by SuperMatt18
Here's the thing...I think they could have if they were patient enough to not try and accelerate the re-build. They really wouldn't have needed a top 3 pick.
Let's play a game where in an alternate universe where they never make the Hamilton, Hamonic, Lazar, or Elliott trades and don't try to push in their chips early.
For the picks they do trade...we have to take a player within 5 selections of our pick, can't change any other picks.
Let's start in 2014 which was the Bennett draft following the only real "rebuild" season which was 13-14 and when their play in the 14-15 season started to accelerate the re-build. At that time you have Gaudreau, Monahan, Backlund, Gio, and Brodie as your "core" and let's look only at the first three rounds.
Traded picks in red
2014:
4 OV: Bennett
34 OV: McDonald
54 OV: Smith
64 OV: Hickey
(Not even going to take the full benefit of hindsight and update those picks to Demko, Montour, and Point).
2015:
15 OV: Barzal
45 OV: Hintz
52 OV: Trenin
53 OV: Andersson
71 OV: Kylington
2016:
6th OV: Tkachuk
35 OV: Kyrou
54 OV: Parsons
56 OV: Dube
66 OV: Fox
2017:
16 OV: Valimaki
47 OV: Formenton
78 OV: Stuart Skinner
2018:
12 OV: Noah Dobson
43 OV: Perunovich
74 OV: Jakub Lauko
The Flames problem is that during a 5 year stretch that should have still firmly been a "rebuild" but weren't because of the fluke 14-15 season changing expectations, they traded away 9 picks in the first three rounds.
If they just keep all those picks we could be looking at this core...and they wouldn't have had a top 3 pick at all.
Center: Monahan, Bennett, Barzal, Hintz, Lauko
Wing: Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Kyrou, Formenton, Trenin
Defense: Andersson, Kylington, Fox (let's assume he signs in this magical universe), Valimaki, Dobson, Perunovich
Goalie: Skinner
Plus you probably would have moved guys like Gio, Backlund, and Brodie to add even more assets if you just actually committed to a 5 year re-build.
That team has more than enough skill to be a contender and potentially win a cup without the need for a top 3 pick. The key to building any contender though is just not trading those top 90 picks, for short term help, especially early in a rebuild. You need to have a surplus of picks, and then that surplus of picks helps you build the depth and skill needed to win.
The Flames re-build didn't fail because of a lack of early picks, it failed because they traded too many picks when they should have still been building the team. Early picks help...but top 3 picks aren't mandatory if you're actually being shrewd and are properly managing your assets.
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