Quote:
Originally Posted by Macho0978
With Florida and Edmonton in the finals, 2 teams that have many top picks in their lineup., it seems there is more debate ever on what the Flames should do with their rebuild.
Some want to trade everyone and pick up nobody
Some are ok with moving out vets but adding some younger players with potential. Maybe even use some picks to add as they rebuild.
Because of this I thought I would do some stats showing the results of how the lottery and tanking has gone since 2006.
Bottom 3 in the NHL by points in the last 19 seasons
Last Overall
Average Points- 58
Point ranges:
Below 50 - 3 times 16%
50-59 - 7 times 37%
60-69 - 8 times 42%
70+ - 1 time 5%
2nd Last:
Average Points - 66
Below 50 - 0
50-59 - 5 times 26%
60-69 - 8 times 42%
70+ - 6 times 32%
3rd Last:
Average Points - 69
Below 50 - 0
50-59 - 1 time 5%
60-69 - 8 times 42%
70+ - 9 times 47%
Lottery Results - 19 years:
# Times last wins lottery - 10 times 53%
# times 2nd last wins Lottery - 3 times 16%
# times 3rd last wins Lottery - 3 times 16%
# times outside bottom 3 wins Lottery - 3 times 16%
Lottery Results since 2013 (max 4 spots rule was changed) - 12 years:
# Times last wins lottery - 5 times 42%
# times 2nd last wins Lottery - 2 times 17%
# times 3rd last wins Lottery - 3 times 25%
# times outside bottom 3 wins Lottery - 2 times 17%
Notable Picks from recent cup winners/finalists:
Tampa - Stamkos - finished last with 71 points
Tampa - Hedman - finished 2nd last with 68 points
Edmonton - McDavid - finished 3rd last 62 points
Edmonton - Draisaitl - finished 3rd last 67 points
Edmont - Nuge - finished last pick 1OV 62 points
Florida - Barkov - finished last moved to 2nd pick 60 points
Florida - Ekblad - finished 2nd last moved to 1OV 66 points
Buffalo - Eichel - buffalo finished last move to 2nd pick 54 points
Dallas - Heskinen - Dallas finished 7th last move to 3rd pick 79 points
After the trade deadline, the Flames weren't very good and if they trade Markstrom they are likely a 65–75-point team. Based on the above stats, they already positioned to be near the bottom. Do we really need to go full SJ? Do we really need to panic if we add some players as we subtract? Other than Buffalo with Eichel, none of the teams that picks their superstars were 45–55-point teams.
The so-called Tampa rebuild they were a 70-point team when they landed Stamkos and Hedman, did they even tank to get those players?
I really feel the Flames are positioned very well and if they add some young players to stay a bit more competitive, I'm ok with that and think it's better in the long run and they should still have a great chance at some franchise players with what they have done so far.
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The word generational gets thrown out easily, but McKenna is tracking to be a superstar, Hagens is looking like he is going to be a star #1C.
We need to take a chance and see if we can land one of these guys or both. We even have a Vegas lottery ball.
We don't really need to competitive in the standings, go out and play hard and let the results take care of itself. This is not a playoff team, not even close.