Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
How would you measure success of this policy? Average commute times? Reduction in number of trips taken? Increase in density?
I question the underlying assumption that transit can ever be faster and cheaper without the Density accompanying the great transit systems in the world. In general transit becomes faster when fitting that number of cars is no longer possible.
In areas where land is cheap like Calgary I don’t see it as an improvement. Perhaps in 50 years when city design has changed to higher density it would work be helpful but that might be a distortion due to the law rather than actually better.
I think traffic density based taxation to ensure people are paying for the real cost of infrastructure would be a much more effective policy then a ban.
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Cars are so all-encompassing to our lives that it would be hard to nail down just a few metrics. But it would be super interesting to do a meta-analysis of all the benefits/harms of personal vehicles and speculate how an alternative system would work.
A few random thoughts:
1. Overall economy would suffer to some degree, but a lot of different economic activities/services would fill the void.
2. It would also lead to different consumption patterns. Good/bad/different? Depends on the eye of the beholder, but I don't think it would be the worst thing in the world if there was an additional impediment to some consumption (and the local economy doesn't benefit nearly as much from physical consumption as it used to).
3. A lot of the benefits of this change would be hard to establish precise causal links, but the physical and mental health benefits would be huge. We here a lot that just 30 minutes of walking a day can do so much to improve one's health...this basically guarantees it for nearly everyone.
4. A slightly healthier populace without any big car accidents (though certainly still some bike/etc accidents) would be some pretty substantial savings.
5. The system could still fail at times, but I think it would be a lot less frequent and severe than our current level of accepted failure (rush hour traffic), let alone unique failures like car vs lrt collision.
6. Mobility challenges - I think would actually improve dramatically if people started navigating the world actively...instead of adding another lane here or there we'd smooth out a whole bunch of curbs. Obviously para transit services would remain/expand.
This would involve a transformative redefinition of prosperity. If the overall GDP decline is comparable to the offset total expenditure on personal transportation then it's almost certainly a win. Physical activity instead of the subtle (and sometimes not so subtle) aggravation of navigating the metal box rat race.
I would pay more taxes to pay less on my personal transport to have an often less convenient form of service that is also very often less aggravating.