Quote:
Originally Posted by nfotiu
There are counterpoints to that though.
Inflation is a major issue that affects everyone, and Biden (wrongfully) takes all the blame.
Trump is somehow benefitting from the phenomenon that people have a fonder view of past presidents as time passes.
The other major factor is Israel. There are a lot of young people who say they are not voting for Biden due to Israel policies. Is that principal worth standing up for if it means giving the White House to someone who is likely to be more pro-Israel, and also will make life worse for women, minorities and LGBTQ+ people?
Biden's path to victory is convincing people that Trump is a far worse option for points 1 and 3. They need to figure out how to get that message out, and convince people, and I'm not sure if they can.
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I just figure the issues you list are unlikely to flip voters from Biden to Trump. The only issue that matters is Trump or "not Trump". For most elections it's either Democrat or Republican for the vast majority of voters, and it's how they vote their whole lives.
The only real question is turnout. Trump makes people come out in record numbers to vote against him. It's literally the only reason they vote.
That's visible in the special elections. That's visible in red states voting for the Democrats as a result of Roe v. Wade.
For the youth vote and the Israel Palestine conflict - I tend to think the media coverage outstrips the actual headcount of protesters. There was a "walkout" when Jerry Seinfeld was speaking in North Carolina at Duke and it was heavily reported, but it amounted to something like 30-100 of 7000 attendees.
Hope I'm right. Could be wrong. Want to see a lot of voices calling out the risk between now and November regardless.