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Old 05-29-2024, 08:46 AM   #14434
nfotiu
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Join Date: May 2002
Location: Virginia
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SutterBrother View Post
In a nutshell - special elections are more accurate than polling. Dems won those, or overperformed. The only people who answer polls (landline unknown caller during weekday working hours) are retirees. Record turnout to vote against Trump in 2020. Roe v Wade being overturned is the most single voter mobilizing issue of the last 40 years. Young women now vote in record numbers across every state.

I could be wrong about ALL of that. So your voice is super important in getting out the vote.
There are counterpoints to that though.

Inflation is a major issue that affects everyone, and Biden (wrongfully) takes all the blame.

Trump is somehow benefitting from the phenomenon that people have a fonder view of past presidents as time passes.

The other major factor is Israel. There are a lot of young people who say they are not voting for Biden due to Israel policies. Is that principal worth standing up for if it means giving the White House to someone who is likely to be more pro-Israel, and also will make life worse for women, minorities and LGBTQ+ people?


Biden's path to victory is convincing people that Trump is a far worse option for points 1 and 3. They need to figure out how to get that message out, and convince people, and I'm not sure if they can.
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