Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathgod
1 in 8 may be wrong, but he's a very significant underdog without a doubt.
He's down by 2.5 points in Pennsylvania, and when under sampling is taken into account, he's probably actually down by 4 or 5. So going by your assumption that by winning Penn he automatically wins all 3 (presumptuous, but I'm willing to grant you it), he's still in quite a bit of trouble.
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You can’t just assume undersampling and add it in like it’s a fact. The 2022 races in Pennsylvania it didn’t show up and underestimated democratic senate support significantly. We also don’t have detailed info on how the likely voter models for these polls has changed or remained the same since the 2020 and 2022 elections
The answer of we don’t know yet it’s close is about all you can reasonably say right now with a slight edge to Trump.