I don't actually think polling will be the most important factor to watch in this election, and that doesn't mean the poling will be wrong. The poling will likely be 49-51 either way right to the end. But this will be a turn out election plain and simple. Democrats are struggling with a loose collision that is unhappy, but does starting to see Trump again scare them enough to head to the poles in the large numbers seen 4 years ago. And there are a lot of signs that Trump support has bifurcated into even more extreme and more tepid, Will the tepid sit out and let Trump lose to just put an end to this?
That is the real election question, and at the moment I think it probably sits 60-40 in favor of Trump because the "good" republicans have shown they could plug there nose and stick their heads up Trumps ass in the past, so I expect them to do it again.
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