Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
You are making the same mistake that the Princeton poll made in the 2016 elections.
State results in polling error are highly correlated as is the popular vote distribution. . So it isn’t a 1/8 chance of winning the rust belt states. It’s a polling error within the margin of statistical error (ignoring sampling bias errors) of the current polls. Essentially if he wins one rust belt state he likely wins more than one. It’s actually difficult to just win one.
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The only error these polls made
both in 2016 and 2020 was underestimate Trump's support. There are pockets of Trump supporters who never participate in polls, and are therefore never represented in the polling data.
There are differences between the rust belt states, for example a large Arab American population in Michigan, which is upset with Biden over the Gaza situation. Biden is also rapidly losing support in Pennsylvania among Black and Latino voters, as well as young voters.
So no I don't think all three states are joined at the hip. They are three separate contests.