Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathgod
It very much is. Trump benefits greatly from the electoral college, so Biden has to win the popular vote by a BIG margin like he did in 2020, to have a realistic chance of winning the election.
Right now Biden has (if you're being charitable) a 50/50 shot at winning any one of the three rust belt states. He NEEDS to win all three. So he's actually looking at a 1 in 8 chance of winning the election.
Again, there's still time for things to change, but this line has been repeated many times over the past year and nothing has really changed.
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You are making the same mistake that the Princeton poll made in the 2016 elections.
State results in polling error are highly correlated as is the popular vote distribution. . So it isn’t a 1/8 chance of winning the rust belt states. It’s a polling error within the margin of statistical error (ignoring sampling bias errors) of the current polls. Essentially if he wins one rust belt state he likely wins more than one. It’s actually difficult to just win one.