Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
The horse race is currently Trump +1.5. That isn’t 80/20 territory.
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It very much is. Trump benefits greatly from the electoral college, so Biden has to win the popular vote by a BIG margin like he did in 2020, to have a realistic chance of winning the election.
Right now Biden has (if you're being charitable) a 50/50 shot at winning any one of the three rust belt states. He NEEDS to win all three. So he's actually looking at a 1 in 8 chance of winning the election.
Again, there's still time for things to change, but this line has been repeated many times over the past year and nothing has really changed.