If the polls have been so "fudged" and "unreliable", maybe you can show me the evidence that they have been?
Allan Lichtman's keys leave out important factors such as online propaganda coming from countries such as Russia and China, and the rising threat of AI that can create fake but very convincing images and videos. It also doesn't take into account that the challenger is himself a former president, and the incumbent is in his 80s and sometimes has difficulties speaking clearly, and that Trump's following is extremely cult-like. Furthermore, it doesn't take other problems into account such as inflation and the Gaza situation. It measures "strong economy" as a simple yes or no, looking at unemployment rates and the stock market, but doesn't take inflation into account.
Here's a column that was written in 2023 that I'd recommend everyone read. It rings just as true today as it did when it was written, maybe even more so.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...-robert-kagan/