The Flames are not going to be a bottom 5 team. The only reason they even dropped into the bottom 10 this season after the trade deadline was the play of Jacob Markstrom, a true tank commander.
It may not have registered because the Flames traded away key pieces so their quality of play dropped a bit, but without his terrible goaltending performance the team would not have fallen off like they did.
Jacob Markstrom October 10 - March 8 versus March 9 to April 18
Record: 22-16-2 / Record: 1-7-0
Wins: 22 (10th) / Wins: 1 (67th)
Save Percentage: .911 (14th) / Save Percentage: .870 (66th)
GAA: 2.62 (17th) / GAA: 3.55 (62nd)
Games Started with SV% above .900: 24 (13th) / zero (71st tied for last)
Even Strength SV%: .917 (22nd) / .900 (54th)
Penalty Kill SV%: .907 (5th) / .714 (73rd)
For Comparison here is Dustin Wolf with the same roster post deadline:
Record: 6-4-0
Wins: 6 (17th)
Save Percentage: .902 (36th)
GAA: 2.74 (34th)
Games Started with SV% above .900: 6 (18th)
Even Strength SV%: .912 (39th)
Penalty Kill SV%: .841 (49th)
Flames October 10 - March 8 vs March 9 - April 18
Record: 31-26-5 (19th) / 7-13-0 (27th)
GF: 197 (17th) / 56 (18th)
GA: 190 (14th) / 77 (31st)
PP: 14.4 (30th) / 29.3 (3rd)
PK: 86.3 (4th) / 71.4 (29th)
Shots for: 31.3 (12th) / 31.7 (10th)
Shots against: 14.4 (15th) / 29.3 (14th)
Even Strength Shot attempts% (corsi): 50.75 (16th) / 52.94 (8th)
Even Strength Expected Goals For%: 51.60 (10th) / 48.74 (20th)
Even Strength Actual Goals For%: 51.62 (14th) / 39.18 (30th)
Even Strength Save%: .902 (22nd) / .879 (27th)
Even Strength Expected Goals Against per 60: 2.72 (15th) / 2.85 (22nd)
Even Strength Actual Goals Against per 60: 2.85 (20th) / 3.45 (30th)
Even Strength Scoring Chance Against per 60: 28.53 (22nd) / 27.23 (14th)
Penalty Kill xGA/60: 8.39 (14th) / 7.33 (10th)
Penalty Kill Actual GA/60: 7.23 (12th) / 10.93 (29th)
Where are the significant drop-offs? In my opinion they are mostly related to goaltending.
Goals against: 14th to 31st
PK: 4th to 29th
Expected GF%: 10th to 20th
Actual GF%: 14th to 30th
Expected Goals Against/60: 15th to 22nd
Even Strength Actual Goals Against/60: 20th to 30th
Penalty Kill Actual Goals Against/60: 12th to 29th
If the Flames drop-off was due to the skaters, I would expect to see the drop-offs in expected numbers and actual numbers to be similar, but that's not the case. The skaters remained in the range where you would expect a bubble team to be (15th to 22nd) in most categories, but the results were bottom five.
It's possible that there will be regression among the better players and that goaltending will be terrible, but I think both of those would have to happen for the Flames to be at the bottom of the league. Much more likely to see them in the 16th - 25th range again.
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