Quote:
Originally Posted by powderjunkie
It finished 49-38 seats. NDP need to flip 6 seats (while not losing any) to win. They lost the following by this much:
YYC North - 129 votes
YYC NW - 143
YYC Cross - 514
YYC Bow - 623
Lethbridge East - 636
YYC East - 698
Four of these ridings had below avg turnout. So it's not even a matter of changing votes as much as getting people who couldn't be arsed to actually come out. Or even just for a few hundred people to go from 'I vote blue by default' to change to 'I don't like either option and won't vote'
The NDP also won 6 ridings by less than 700 votes (5 in Calgary + Banff riding) so they have to work hard to keep those.
I'm not sure why people bother talking about whether rural folk will tolerate Nenshi or not. It doesn't matter. And it actually isn't nearly as insurmountable as it may seem. But there is very very little margin for error.
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As someone who isn't an NDP voter, I keep talking about a path forward for the NDP and Nenshi not having strong rural support. He could get it but a lot of NDP voters are dreaming of long term NDP change via a few additional seats in Calgary to win. That is a very risky strategy cause it can turn quickly with as you said, very low margin of error.
You always want broad based support and representation as it gives you a better on the ground sense of what is happening. The UCP can get away with rural and Calgary support and lose Edmonton voters but the NDP can't get away with winning Calgary/Edmonton and not much else and hope to govern long term.
If we look at the federal scene, it appears the Conservatives have woken up and are starting to attract voters in large cities Toronto/Montreal/Vancouver. You can't expect to form government if you don't win in large cities on the federal scene. Just relying on a single group or demographic is the hockey equivalent of trying to win with 1 or 2 lines as opposed to winning with all 4 lines.