[belsarius]

I looked at the last 3 elections and the votes not based on vote share, but also based on total population.

Turnout was similar in 2015 and 2023 (high 50s) but almost 10% higher in 2019.. there was a lot of people who got out to vote to get rid of the NDP.

By % population:

In 2015 the NDP had 23% of the population vote for them, the Wildrose/PC had 30%. NDP won because of the vote split, no real argument there.

In 2019 the NDP had 22% of the population, maintaining their base, but the UCP jumped to 37%. With the higher voter turnout, pretty much all new voters, voted UCP, and without a split the election was easy.

In 2023 we saw a shift. NDP grabbed 27% of the population, UCP dropped to 32%. We also saw a vote turnout drop 10%. The popular vote share for the UCP stayed at 55%, but they lost all the support from people staying home with their share of the population dropping. They lost 100,000 votes and the NDP gained 150,000.

I think it is fair to say that in the last election we saw the NDP strengthen (anti UCP strengthen) and more people decided to not vote at all... "I don't like the UCP, but I ain't voting Orange."

Nenshi is trying to come in and push those 10% back into the polls for the NDP, his job is to grab those people that Rachel couldn't get, not to swing UCP voters to the NDP, but to get the fence sitters to show up for his team. It isn't going to be easy, but the last election had a % of population swing 5% from the UCP to the NDP. If he can manage the same growth that the NDP had from 2019 to 2023, then I think he can manage to pull it out.