Quote:
Originally Posted by GioforPM
They could trade 29OA plus 80OA to get to 12 I suppose. They still have the Vegas 3rd.
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I don't think 29 + 80 = 12.
My memory might be falling me but I think typically late teens is worth something in the 30s + 50s. You're looking a lot higher than late teens on the return, and a lot lower than 50 on the second piece, where the primary 29 is not all that different than 30.
I think 29+41+60 would be closer to the ball park for 12, and I still think most teams would say no, unless they just aren't that high on the draft in general.
I wonder if you could look at every draft pick trade ever made and come up with a pick value curve, like every successive pick loses ~3% or 4% value over the prior.
*I haven't don't the math on old picks myself, but 4% lost value feels right, in some of the scenarios it would give you this vs 1 OA;
12 = 64%
29+41+60 = 60%
19 = 48%
32+52=42%
29+80= 36%
As I look at the formula it's probably imperfect, because the rate of change in values is probably nowhere near constant, obviously you would never trade 1 for 17+19.
edit *Driveway, beat me to it, I guess someone on the internet has already done far better math than me. that should always be the first assumption.