Quote:
Originally Posted by 1qqaaz
He'll likely be a good pick wherever he goes.
But Justin Poirier's stats are quite a bit worse than that of similar guys like DeBrincat, Cristall, Brink, and Stankoven. All of them went in the early to mid second, but all are steals. |
Even still… I’d be happy for the flames to use a 2nd round pick on him. Another advantage with players like that is that their value tends to stay higher at least until they make the pro leagues… certainly not always and their value may stay high if they continue to produce at the AHL/NHL level. But offensively-skilled players like that have a better chance to make team Canada at the World Juniors to showcase their value and will likely have an even better year in junior after they are drafted.
Stankoven is a great example. Taken in the second round due to his size despite dominating in his draft year. Made team Canada and really stood out on that team. Continued to dominate in Junior and his skills translated into the AHL and now the NHL. There’s no guarantee a player like Poirier will follow the same trajectory as Stankoven but he’s more likely to be evaluated as a higher value (B+ or potentially an A-) between now and when he makes the NHL than a player that is always projected to be a 3rd/4th liner in the NHL. Pretty much from the moment that Stankoven was drafted, he was considered a valuable prospect and his value has only increased.
I think those are smart gambles in drafting prospects outside the first round even if the bust risk is higher on them due to size, speed or injury concerns. You could always trade those kind of prospects while their value is high if you think their game won’t translate to the NHL. Think of it as buying a stock that has a high chance of increasing in value for the next two years. Even if you think the stock might drop off after that (when the prospect turns pro), you could always sell (trade) just before. Think of the value that 2nd round pick Dallas used on Stankoven… and think of the value Stankoven would have had before he even played in the NHL this year. The flames might have given Hanifin+Tanev for Stankoven alone.