The major component of the EV is the battery, and improvements there have been more incremental than exponential.. 50% more capacity now than 10 years ago.
I think a significant jump in capacity or transformative change (i.e. near instant charging) would require a completely different technology or chemistry, so that's difficult to predict.
Plus the current cars are already super efficient, to the point that factors like temperature or aerodynamics make a huge impact on range, so not sure how much more could be done on that front to make better use of the existing battery capacity.
But I get what you're saying and while I might not lean towards the same numbers the idea I still agree with; this stuff is still early days and it would have to make a lot of sense for me right now. I wouldn't buy one if there wasn't a significant portion of the battery warranty left for example.
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Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position.
But certainty is an absurd one.
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