Quote:
Originally Posted by bizaro86
If the regressions offset (and maybe they will, pitching was "luckier" than average last year while hitting was "unluckier" than average") then all you have is the straight up changes they made
Turner replaces Belt as DH: call this a wash, even though turner had worse OBP and slugging percentage and is older.
IKF replaces Chapman: pretty clear downgrade, imo.
Rodriguez replaces Hicks: could be an upgrade over the long term if he grows into a starter, but having someone throwing 100mph to lock down the 8th in a tight game is nice also.
?? replaces Ryu as starter #5: this one is a big question mark imo. If we get Cy Young version of Manoah back or Tiedeman turns into the next Jose Berrios thats a huge upgrade. If we end up with a bunch of bullpen days and a rotating cast of guys getting chased in the third this one could be a big downgrade.
Anyway, I think over the off-season if you assume regressions equal out between pitching and hitting I think the team is a bit worse. Not dramatically, probably like 2-3 wins worth.
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Mostly agree. I don’t think there’s much difference in Chapman and IKF to be honest. Chapman will have better d and the occasional pop, but I think it’ll be offset with IKF’s average. I think they’ll be washes. Chapman was pretty over rated based on flashes and the potential he had. Like a lot of guys, just wildly inconsistent.
Anyway, I don’t see how most of the batting gets better. And that luck on pitching never happens normally. So I do see them slightly worse this year as well.