Quote:
Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy
No, if that happened the Jays would win 100~ games.
If they have some positive regression and some negative regression this team will win 90~ games like last year and have another go at the playoffs probably, which makes all the whining about the "terrible off season" moot.
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If the regressions offset (and maybe they will, pitching was "luckier" than average last year while hitting was "unluckier" than average") then all you have is the straight up changes they made
Turner replaces Belt as DH: call this a wash, even though turner had worse OBP and slugging percentage and is older.
IKF replaces Chapman: pretty clear downgrade, imo.
Rodriguez replaces Hicks: could be an upgrade over the long term if he grows into a starter, but having someone throwing 100mph to lock down the 8th in a tight game is nice also.
?? replaces Ryu as starter #5: this one is a big question mark imo. If we get Cy Young version of Manoah back or Tiedeman turns into the next Jose Berrios thats a huge upgrade. If we end up with a bunch of bullpen days and a rotating cast of guys getting chased in the third this one could be a big downgrade.
Anyway, I think over the off-season if you assume regressions equal out between pitching and hitting I think the team is a bit worse. Not dramatically, probably like 2-3 wins worth.