A fun article from the Athletic. The author projects the win totals of each team using PECOTA models/simulations, but then draws an analog comparable team from the past to predict what will ACTUALLY happen.
PECOTA has the Jays winning 88 games. The author's analog comparable is the 2018 Red Sox, and suggests the Jays could win the World Series if everything goes right.
Quote:
Historical analogue: 2018 Boston Red Sox
Projected record: 88-74
Actual record: 108-54, World Series champions
The Red Sox entered 2018 with an enviable core of young position players who’d unexpectedly struggled throughout the prior year, even as their pitching staff helped lead them to the postseason. When it clicked in 2018, it clicked not just for Mookie Betts but for Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr. and Rafael Devers and Andrew Benintendi, all at the same time.
The Blue Jays have been a popular preseason pick the last couple of seasons even as they’ve failed to translate their talent into a single October victory. But if it clicks for every part of their offense like it did for Boston, the Jays will be as scary as anyone in the AL.
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https://theathletic.com/5367349/2024...view-playoffs/
I want to believe...