[Sandman]

Draft Thoughts (Disappointed Edition):

LHD Edvin Nilsson has seen a downturn in his numbers this season, after a promising 2022-23 that saw him record 25 points in 46 J20 games for HV71, (0.54 ppg)- which ranked him 17th in scoring by defenseman, and 1st on the team. In 2023-24, he has posted a ppg of 0.41, putting up 14 points in 34 games, which ranks him 3rd on the team, and 49th overall in scoring by defensemen. I can't explain this decrease, as HV71 is in virtually the same place in the standings this year as they were last year, although they have dropped from 6th in goals-for in 2022-23, down to 11th out of 21 teams. I'm not sure if his ice-time has been cut, but two defensemen that were below him in scoring last year, Viggo Gustafsson and Wilhelm Hallquisth, have pulled ahead of him this year. Though +/- is considered a useless stat by some, Nilsson went from -11 last season to a +9 this year, which might make one believe that he's perhaps playing a more conservative brand of hockey in order to shore up his defensive game, or that HV71 is employing a more defensive structure. Nilsson spent 17 games in the HockeyEttan, Sweden's third-tier men's league, and had 3 points.

The first noticeable quality in Nilsson's game is his outstanding skating, with excellent speed in all directions that he can use to either pull away from opponents in open ice, or weave through traffic with his lateral quickness and superior agility. He has a strong base, with a fairly low center of gravity (he's 5'11",183), so even though he's small in stature, he's not easy to knock off the puck. There has always been a strong foundation with this player in regards to hockey sense and awareness, but these days he's playing more like a puck-mover than an offensive defenseman, and more facilitator than outright playmaker- he reads the ice extremely well, but sticks to safer, simpler plays, which for this player can still be highly effective. He has a solid passing game, and can still find teammates in danger areas with regularity, but there's only flashes of high-end playmaking. One of his best attributes is the confidence and poise he exhibits when in possession of the puck- his stickhandling is smooth and tight, and he's decisive with his passing- he moves the puck fast, and doesn't create many turnovers. Nilsson is not shy about joining the rush to act as an extra forward, and to keep opponents on their toes. To add to his offensive game, he owns a hard, heavy point shot.

I have read many desciptions of Nilsson's defensive game, and most of them are glowingly positive, portraying him as a highly dependable two-way D, but the underlying numbers don't back these discriptions up. In reality, at least this season, his defensive game is his true detriment- he lacks the size and strength to control opposing attackers along the wall, and in front of the net. The eye test tells you that he's industrious and agressive, and starts the shut-down in the early stages of the opposition's breakout in the other end of the ice, but it would seem that the results aren't there, as he allows too many entries, and doesn't do enough in the zone to kill plays. His retrievals are a bit wonky too, but he's actually quite useful in transition, moving the puck with quality passes, or by carrying while dodging checkers with speed and elusiveness. Nilsson has a lot of work to do to get stronger, and polish his defensive game. His deficiencies, when combined with his decline in offense, might keep from getting drafted. If he does get picked, it will be in the late rounds, and he'll go to a team that sees his potential from 2022-23, along with his prime skating and puck-movement, with this season being an unfortunate blip.