Quote:
Originally Posted by dgibb10
Calgary fans seem to be very confused by relatively simple, well documented concepts such as shooting % regression to the mean and expected goals.
It's as tale as old as time, if you want to look for the guy whos gonna regress, you look for the guy shooting 20% out of the blue (Blake Coleman, Yegor Sharangovich, Andrei Kuzmenko in calgary or from last year), or far above expectation
If you want to look for the candidate to improve, you look for the guy shooting way below his career rates, or far (Mangiapane, Backlund although he's old so age regression plays in, Huberdeau).
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I totally agree with the concept as proposed and for a dude like Coleman, yup very likely (we have him on his contract - it is what it is anyways - so really not too worried about unintended consequences)
for Sharangovich- sure unlikely to be a 20% shooter going forward, but credit is due to the Flames they 'bought' him after a 9% season and he's not that either. his previous 2 years and career average suggest 14-15%. I know the 'eye test' is fraught with problems- but the guy has some finish/a nice shot that stands out to me in a way that isn't true of every guy the Flames (or any team for that matter) has had with a bit of a hot streak season , so I think this guy can be an NHL goal scorer
(as for Kuzmenko I guess we don't know what he is- he's an imperfect hockey player for sure, but I guess all we know is over 137 NHL games his shooting percentage is 22% is he that? probably not especially as there are no NHL players active with a lengthy career at that level- maybe he's a 16% guy, maybe not, dunno...)