Quote:
Originally Posted by dgibb10
Calgary fans seem to be very confused by relatively simple, well documented concepts such as shooting % regression to the mean and expected goals.
It's as tale as old as time, if you want to look for the guy whos gonna regress, you look for the guy shooting 20% out of the blue (Blake Coleman, Yegor Sharangovich, Andrei Kuzmenko in calgary or from last year), or far above expectation
If you want to look for the candidate to improve, you look for the guy shooting way below his career rates, or far (Mangiapane, Backlund although he's old so age regression plays in, Huberdeau).
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Sharangovich is shooting a bit above norm...but it's actually more of a correction for what was a low shooting percentage last year.
His 9.92% shooting percentage last year is just as far off his career average, as his 19.44% shooting percentage is this year.
If he was shooting his career average which was 14.5% then he'd have 21 goals instead of 28. But generally any player that has a career season is being driven by abnormal shooting percentages.
And in terms of Blake Coleman he has 7 empty net goals...I doubt anybody is really expecting him to repeat his goal totals year over year.