[Bingo]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

I know people look at these new stats and think they are meaningful

Just a quick note on what xG and GSAx are

Every shot taken is classified by data such as its location, shot type, plus some other info on the preceding event. And it has a probability reflecting the likelihood of a shot within that bucket of shots similarly classified. xG (upon which GSAx is based) adds it all up and spits out a number

What it does not factor in are things like team defensive position, pressure the shooter is under, goalie positioning, the skill of the shooter, or where the shot goes off of the stick.

MacKinnon’s blast over his shoulder beside his head has the same xG contribution as a shot from same location by Kevin Rooney that is drilled straight in to the goalie’s logo. Both goalies are judged equally by the model on the outcome, because those shots have certain specific common attributes. But they are very different shots, demanding quite different responses from the goalies.

The open net tap in by Rantaanen that was fumbled by Weegar has the same xG as a shot from the same location with a goalie perfectly square and nothing to shoot at.

When Pachal fumbles the puck, and Carolina has a 2 on 0 perfectly executed and blasted past the goalie, that shot has a xG contribution based on the bucket of shot with similar basic attributes, taken by all players of all skill levels

A new sub NHL calibre D corps in shambles is giving up a lot of ridiculous opportunities where the goalie has to move laterally


Advanced stats aren’t that sophisticated. They don’t reflect what a goalie actually has to do on each shot.

If you just use your head and look at Colorado’s xG total on the night, you’d have to be a fool to think they only should have gotten that number of goals on the actual shots they got.

It only takes a few stinkers of games to have those stats build up, and the Canes and Avs games were exactly those kind of games

The D played like crap, the team watched the other team dictate the play, turned over pucks, missed checks, and they were horribly outplayed

There can be a difference between generally bad teams, and teams that have numerous egregious costly breakdowns

When you give high skilled shooters time and space and grade A opportunities, they will capitalize. When you make a habit of doing it repeatedly, then you will have results outlying statistical norms

To point at a simple model (just because they call it advanced stats doesn’t mean it is anything too sophisticated) and come to some conclusions about the goalie seems inadequate when you take a closer look and understand what the numbers are actually based upon

Tell me you keep this in a side file to copy and paste 6 times a year!