My understanding is that the Flames have a chance at Celebrini as long as they their pick is in the top 11. It is currently 11th, so they would have a 3% chance of picking first and a 3% chance of picking second.
If the Flames were to have the 8th pick, they would have a 6% chance of picking first. But there would be a 17.5% chance that someone below the Flames passes them via the lottery.
As per MoneyPuck, the Flames have a 2.2% chance of making the playoffs. So they are now more likely to pick 1st than they are make the playoffs.
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