Quote:
Originally Posted by The Cobra
Of course they add up to 100, as all teams are involved.
Look at it this way.
Let’s say Calgary has 2 games to play, each with a 50% chance of winning.
Is there chance of winning at least one game 100%? Of course not.
To find out their chance of winning at least one game, you need to calculate their chance of losing both games. That ‘s .50x.50= 25%. .25-1.00. =.75. So they have a 75% chance of winning at least 1. In reality, we know they have a 25% chance of winning both or losing both, and a 50% chance of winning 1.
To figure out Calgary’s chance of picking at least in the top 3, you need to figure out their chances on not picking in the top 3 and subtracting from 100%. So you multiply the inverse of 6, 6.2 and 0,2 and subtract from 100%, getting about 12%.
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I mean that for each row on the tankathon chart, if you add up all the values, they come out to 100%. Which makes sense because at each position, you have exactly 100% chance to draft between 1 and 32.
You multiply probabilities when you have separate events linked together. That's why that method works when you are talking about playing 2 games. The draft lottery is only one event.
Your calculation was for doing 3 draft lottery events. You calculated that there was an 88% probability that 1 of the drafts would be anything but 1st overall, 1 of the drafts would be anything but 2nd overall, and 1 of the drafts would be anything but 3rd overall. There is a 12% probability that this 3 drafts result would not occur.
I'm a bit rusty on probabilities math, so maybe someone else can confirm.