Quote:
Originally Posted by PuckDemon
I think the way he added the odds is the correct way to do it. The tankathon odds all add up to 100%.
The Flames, if they ended up in 8th position, can pick 3rd if this happens:
1) The 12th position team wins the 1st overall lottery. They are limited to a jump of 10 spots, so they end up in 2nd overall instead.
2) The Flames then win the 2nd overall lottery. Since that spot is already taken, the Flames get bumped down to 3rd overall.
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Of course they add up to 100, as all teams are involved.
Look at it this way.
Let’s say Calgary has 2 games to play, each with a 50% chance of winning.
Is there chance of winning at least one game 100%? Of course not.
To find out their chance of winning at least one game, you need to calculate their chance of losing both games. That ‘s .50x.50= 25%. .25-1.00. =.75. So they have a 75% chance of winning at least 1. In reality, we know they have a 25% chance of winning both or losing both, and a 50% chance of winning 1.
To figure out Calgary’s chance of picking at least in the top 3, you need to figure out their chances on not picking in the top 3 and subtracting from 100%. So you multiply the inverse of 6, 6.2 and 0,2 and subtract from 100%, getting about 12%.